JSM 2011 Online Program

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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 675
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 4, 2011 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #303160
Title: Forecasting Age-Related Change in Brain Cancer Mortality
Author(s): Keshav Pokhrel*+ and Chris Tsokos
Companies: University of South Florida and University of South Florida
Address: 4106 Skipper Road Apt 221, Tampa, FL, 33613, United States
Keywords: Mortality ; State Space modeling ; functional data analysis ; forecasting ; smoothing
Abstract:

It is estimated that around 22,020 men and women (11,980 men and 10,040 women) will be diagnosed with and 13,140 men and women will die of cancer of the brain and other nervous system annually. We apply functional time series models on age-specific brain cancer mortality rates for different races (white, African American and Other) and forecast their mortality curves using exponential smoothing state-space models. The data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program of the US. Mortality data were obtained from the National Centre for Health Statistics (NCHS) available on the SEER*Stat database. We use annual Age-Adjusted brain cancer mortality rates from 1969 to 2007 in 5-year age groups (45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84). Age-specific mortality curves are obtained using nonparametric smoothing methods. The curves from each population are forecasted and prediction intervals are calculated.


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