JSM 2011 Online Program

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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 185
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 1, 2011 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #303123
Title: Hierarchical Models for Parameter Estimation of SEIR Models with Application to Raccoon Rabies Spread
Author(s): Gavino Puggioni*+ and Luca Gerardo Giorda and Leslie Real and Lance Waller
Companies: Emory University and Emory University and Emory University and Emory University
Address: , Atlanta , GA, 30322, United States
Keywords: Stochastic Differential Equations ; SEIR models ; Raccoon rabies spread ; Hierarchical Models ; Bayesian Estimation ; Space time models

The goal of this paper is to propose methods for parameter estimation in SEIR models. We propose a direct lieklihood evaluation of a reduced version of a system of 4 differential equations system. Estimation is performed with MCMC techniques. The methodology is then applied to the raccoon rabies spread in the state of New York from 1990 to 2007. Data are reported cases collected at different townships across the state and simulated total raccoon populations.

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