Estimating the Probability of Engagement Success for Missile Defense Systems

• Activity Number: 225
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, August 1, 2011 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security
• Author(s): Carl Gaither*+
• Companies: Institute for Defense Analyses
• Keywords: Missile Defense ; Probability of Success

Abstract

We present a methodology for estimating the probability of engagement success (PES) for missile defense systems specifically for the portions of their engagement battle space sampled through developmental and operational testing. This methodology is based on the concept of the DuPont model which is widely used in financial analysis. It incorporates ground- and flight-test data to the maximum extent possible. The ability to incorporate as much data as possible is crucial because the cost and logistics of performing end-to-end missile defense system tests places severe restrictions on the amount of data available. This methodology offers several distinct advantages: 1) it is straight-forward and offers clear insight into the missile defense functions that drive performance; 2) it identifies over- and under- performing missile defense functions; 3) it can incorporate historical testing, component-level testing, and end-to-end testing of missile defense systems; and 4) it lends itself to adaptation as missile defense systems mature. We will present a description of this methodology as well as numerical studies of its performance for realistic test outcomes.