Test Concept Development for the Ballistic Missile Defense System

• Activity Number: 225
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, August 1, 2011 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security
• Author(s): Jasmina Marsh*+ and Dawn Loper and Carl Gaither and Michael Luhman
• Companies: Institute for Defense Analyses and Institute for Defense Analyses and Institute for Defense Analyses and Institute for Defense Analyses
• Keywords: Ballistic Missile Defense ; Department of Defense ; Scenario Based Design

Abstract

The Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) is a major Department of Defense acquisition program with no formal requirements to be demonstrated in testing, and no formal milestone decision points. Cost and logistical issues present significant test restrictions that often limit the amount of operationally realistic testing possible before system deployments. This talk presents a rigorous methodology for developing test concepts to characterize the effectiveness of the BMDS. The method is based on modeling and analysis of the intended operational use of the system for a variety of potential threats, producing a set of operational scenarios. Statistical techniques can then be applied to the resultant data from these scenarios to determine the range and likelihood of how a threat may present itself to the BMDS assets. Unique features of these scenarios are extracted, and the scenarios are examined for the desired relative locations of assets for testing. A set of tests are then developed that maximize the operational features while staying within the confines of the test restrictions. Notional examples of this methodology will be presented.