JSM 2011 Online Program

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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 139
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 1, 2011 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #302405
Title: Risk Estimation for Non-Rare Events
Author(s): Shailendra N. Banerjee*+
Companies: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Address: 4770 Buford Highway, Atlanta, GA, 30341,
Keywords: log-binomial ; iterative estimation ; converge ; non-rare event
Abstract:

A fitted logistic regression model can estimate risks adjusted for confounders, but it is known to over-estimate the risks when the outcome event is common or non-rare with an incidence or prevalence rate of roughly 10% or more. One of the alternatives is the log-binomial model, which is a generalized linear model with log-link and binomial errors. Since, this model estimates relative risk and also because odds ratio does not approximate to relative risk for non-rare events, this model is more appropriate compared to logistic regression in this situation. However, one of the known problems with the use of this model is that the iterative estimation algorithm may fail to converge. We used logistic regression, log-binomial and Poisson regression models on a prostate dataset listed by Collett (1991), a non-rare event of 38% in this dataset. Both log-binomial and Poisson model gave smaller and narrower range of risks compared to that of logistic regression model. The log-binomial regression model also resulted in some non-convergent, out-of-bounds predicted probabilities. This will be further investigated with simulated and more observed data.


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