JSM 2011 Online Program

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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 579
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 3, 2011 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
Abstract - #302400
Title: Analyzing the Duration of the Removal Process for Illegal Immigrants
Author(s): Anthony Kasskekert*+
Companies: Office of Immigration Statistics
Address: 800 K Street NW, Washington, DC, 20528,
Keywords: Immigration ; Enforcement ; Survival modeling ; Bayesian

The timely removal of illegal immigrants for violations of U.S. legal statutes is important in order to reduce administrative costs, free scarce resources, and protect the public. This study provides both a descriptive analysis of return times and an initial attempt to explain the length of the removal process by statistical methods. The dependent variable is the removal process duration from the date of apprehension until the day of removal. The covariates employed to predict removal time include geography, age, gender, nationality, month of apprehension, length of stay in the U.S., conviction of an aggravated felony or a drug charge, disposition, employment history, and immigration status (i.e. legal or illegal entry into the U.S.).

Frailty survival modeling using Bayesian estimation will be used to estimate the duration of removal processing. The frailty term will be used to cluster cases based on the geographic area where they are processed. A relative risk survival model will be employed if the assumptions hold. A semi-parametric approach using a generalized additive survival model will be attempted if the relative risk model assumptions fail.

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