Hierarchical Simulation Model for Indian PES

• Activity Number: 28
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Sunday, July 31, 2011 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Government Statistics
• Author(s): Kiranmoy Chatterjee*+ and Arni S.R. Srinivasa Rao
• Companies: Indian Statistical Institute and Indian Statistical Institute
• Keywords: Coverage error ; Artificial population ; Dual system estimate

Abstract

In this study we have tried to understand how Indian PES (Post Enumeration Survey) methodology works and how much difference between coverage errors estimated by Indian PES design and some other possible designs.We have initiated constructing a hierarchical model to capture coverage error in census and built an artificial population in that hierarchical setup following exactly the administrative structure of Indian census.We have repeated the experiment for small and large populations and perform Dual System Estimation(DSE) by artificial Census and PES operations independently on those populations.In present study,along with systematic sampling(used in Indian PES,2001),we have done SRSWOR within each of three strata- city,non-city urban and rural.In our model,we assumed inclusion probabilities are varying uniformly around a specified value,each for Census & PES.It was found in other studies that DSE underestimates the total population.However,in our simulation study,we have not observed this fact for small population. There is no standard pattern about the performance of systematic and SRSWOR and "systematic" showing more fluctuations around true although it is better than SRSWOR.