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Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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624
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Thursday, August 4, 2011 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Sports
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| Abstract - #302317 |
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Title:
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It's Not Over Until It's Over ... Or Is It?
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Author(s):
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Daniel R. Iachan*+ and Ronaldo Iachan and Lee Harding
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Companies:
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Consultant and ICF Macro and ICF Macro
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Address:
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2002 Knollton Rd., Lutherville, MD, 20705,
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Keywords:
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Comebacks ;
NFL ;
MLB ;
NBA ;
Logistic Models ;
COnditional probabilities
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Abstract:
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This paper analyzes data from the National Football League 2010-11 season to examine whether large leads can be overturned during the last (4th) quarter of the game. We analyze and model the probability of a come-back in the regular season and playoff games. The magnitude of the lead is one key parameter, the threshold beyond which a sizable lead may become hard to overcome. The analysis first considers survival-type curves for the probability of a comeback to determine the threshold values, and estimate the associated probabilities. Beyond the magnitude of the lead, we then consider covariates such as whether the game is home or away for the team that is behind, whether it is an intra-conference game, and whether it is a playoff game. These will be examined in the context of multivariate logistic regression models for the probability of a comeback.
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