The Navy Officer Lateral Transfer Process and Retention: A Matched Analysis

• Activity Number: 608
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Thursday, August 4, 2011 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security
• Author(s): Yevgeniya Pinelis*+ and Ann Parcell
• Companies: CNA and CNA
• Keywords: Navy officer personnel management ; lateral transfers ; officer loss rates ; propensity score ; full matching ; observational studies

Abstract

The ability of Navy officers to transfer laterally from one community to another impacts officer loss rates and affects the management of the officer corps. We compare the loss rates of officers who applied for lateral transfer but were disapproved with the loss rates of those who applied and were approved. Only 'best and fully qualified' officers are approved for lateral transfer, resulting in large differences on observed characteristics between officers approved and denied by the lateral transfer board. To adjust for these differences, we stratify officers by matching on the estimated probability of board approval (propensity score), using a formal covariate balance diagnostic to guide the choice of the matching structure. Our resulting stratification balances all observed covariates important to the outcome between the two groups in a way that we might expect to see had the officers been randomly selected for acceptance or rejection. With simple post-matching adjustments, we find support for our hypothesis that officers disapproved for lateral transfer have a higher 36-month loss rate than those approved and highlight other variables important to officer loss rates.