JSM 2011 Online Program

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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 423
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 2, 2011 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Biopharmaceutical Section
Abstract - #302101
Title: A Distribution-Free Bayesian Method for Estimating the Probability of Response in Combination Drug Tests
Author(s): John W. Seaman III*+ and John W. Seaman Jr. and James Stamey
Companies: Alcon Laboratories, Inc. and Baylor University and Baylor University
Address: , , 76134,
Keywords: Early Phase Studies ; Prior Construction ; Proof Loading
Abstract:

Many illnesses are often treated with a combination of drugs. These combinations can be more effective than using any of the component drugs individually, but may lead to increased safety concerns. Prior to human trials with the combination, what can be said about efficacy and/or safety of the combination? An experimental design known as proof loading allows us to obtain preliminary estimates about the joint probability of an adverse event, without exposing patients to the combination drug. We propose a Bayesian distribution-free approach to proof loading as a possible solution to this problem. We investigate the model with examples and simulation studies.


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