JSM 2011 Online Program

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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 182
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 1, 2011 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistical Education
Abstract - #301991
Title: It May Be a Great Day for Baseball, but Is It a Great Day for a Knuckleball?
Author(s): Robert H. Carver*+
Companies: Stonehill College
Address: 320 Washington Street, Easton, MA, 02357,
Keywords: Multiple regression ; Baseball ; Inference ; Decision analysis
Abstract:

The knuckleball is one of the rarest pitches in the repertoire of major league pitchers. It has the potential to confound batters with its unpredictable movement, which results from the absence of rotation on the ball and the interplay of the air turbulence and pressure differentials on the stitches and smooth surface of the baseball. The pitch is notoriously difficult to control, but when effective its slow speed and wide arc leaves batters extremely frustrated. Given the crucial role of air pressure and movement, one wonders if atmospheric and climatological variation influence a skilled pitcher's ability to control the knuckleball in a given game. This paper examines game day data for veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield of the Boston Red Sox and finds that at least part of the answer may be blowin' in the wind. The analysis is accessible to undergraduate students, illustrating the managerial utility of multivariate modeling.


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