JSM 2011 Online Program

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 353
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 2, 2011 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistical Education
Abstract - #301988
Title: Bayesian Hierarchal Models of Final Exam Grades in Statistics Classes: A Two-University Study
Author(s): Lawrence V. Fulton*+ and Rasim Musal and Lana Ivanitskaya and Salma Haidar and Carl Lee
Companies: Texas State University and Texas State University and Central Michigan University and Central Michigan University and Central Michigan University
Address: 601 University Drive, San Marcos, TX, 78108,
Keywords: statistics ; Bayesian ; zero-inflated ; education ; hierarchical

In this two university, IRB-approved study of business statistics courses, we use Bayesian hierarchical modeling to search for the effects of pre-existing ability, demographics, manipulated homework certification standards, "cramming," and other covariates on the probability that a student achieves a particular grade. The significance of our research is that we are able to determine probabilistically the grade that students should expect given fixed covariate values. This information is valuable to both professors and students in realistically appraising likely performance. Our model is nonlinear in parameters and reflects a zero-inflated distribution, accounting for the population of students who did not have an economically rational reason to take the final examination. We identify the distinct number of student grade groups and employ mixed beta distributions in modeling the examination scores. By using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we are able to obtain the examination grade probability distribution that any student "i" will obtain given covariate values. As part of our research, we conduct cross-validation and evaluate model fit.

The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2011 program

2011 JSM Online Program Home

For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473.

If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.