JSM 2011 Online Program

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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 134
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 1, 2011 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Business and Economic Statistics Section
Abstract - #301793
Title: An Alternative Claim Amount Prediction for Deductible Insurance Policies
Author(s): Heungsun "Sunny" Park*+ and Yongbum Jun
Companies: Hankuk University of Foreign Studies and National Agricultural Cooperative Federation
Address: Wangsan-ri Mohyun-myun, Yongin, International, 449791, South Korea
Keywords: Best Predictor ; Weighted Best Predictor ; reinsurance
Abstract:

Best predictor is defined as the conditional expected value of a response. This paper proposes the modified version of best predictor with different weights for the insurance pricing market when considering deductibles. Insurance companies need to predict the claim amount for a policy or a group of policies with the least possible prediction errors while they don't have to take any risk for the claim below the deductible level. The same analogy can be applied to the reinsurance price making system.


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