JSM 2011 Online Program

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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 608
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 4, 2011 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security
Abstract - #301751
Title: Performance of a Sponge-Wipe Surface Sampling Method for Bacillus Anthracis at Low Spore Concentrations
Author(s): Greg F. Piepel*+ and Brett G. Amidan and Paula Krauter and Ray Boucher and Wayne Einfeld
Companies: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories and Sandia National Laboratories and Sandia National Laboratories
Address: PO Box 999, Richland, WA, 99352,
Keywords: Anthrax ; False negative rate ; Recovery efficiency ; Experimental design ; Sigmoidal models
Abstract:

Following the anthrax letter attacks in 2001, negative results were obtained from surface samples in building locations that were later found to be contaminated. The Government Accountability Office concluded that surface sampling methods must be validated and statistical sampling used to provide confidence in negative sampling results. As one effort to address these issues, a laboratory study was conducted to evaluate the performance of a sponge-wipe surface sampling method for Bacillus anthracis (BA) at low spore concentrations. Performance metrics were recovery efficiency and false negative rate (FNR). A BA surrogate was deposited at 8 concentrations on 10 coupons each of 6 surface materials. The concentrations (2 to 1200 spores per 645-cm^2 coupon) were selected to span the FNR range of 0 to 1. The experimental design and data analysis results will be presented. The results include sigmoidal equations for FNR as a function of concentration. In future BA contamination events, these equations can provide inputs to formulas for calculating the number of statistical samples required and the confidence of no contamination if all sample results are negative.


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