Statistical Modeling the Disappearance of Helicobacter Pylori and Its Association with Gastric Cancer and Childhood Asthma

• Activity Number: 190
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, August 1, 2011 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
• Author(s): Wei Wei*+ and Zhi Qiao and Bo Hu and Maria Dominguez-Bello
• Companies: University of Minnesota at Rochester and University of Minnesota at Rochester and University of Minnesota at Twin Cities and University of Puerto Rico at Rio Piedras
• Keywords: Helicobacter pylori ; logistic regression ; linear regression ; gastric cancer ; childhood asthma

Abstract

The bacterium, Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori), colonizes the human stomach and is one of the factors contributing to gastric cancer, but prohibiting childhood asthma. In recent decades, the prevalence of H. pylori infection has been declining in developed countries. However, the approximate time when H. pylori will disappear and the quantitative association of the H. pylori declining rate with the trends of gastric cancer and childhood asthma have yet to be discovered. We take the data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III and the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results databases; analyze the trends of H. pylori infection, gastric cancer and childhood asthma in the United States population by applying a linear and a logistic regression model; and set up a mathematical model to show the relationship of the H. pylori extinction rate with the prevalence of gastric cancer and childhood asthma. We also perform a model validation to test whether or not these models are the best fit to the data. According to the regression models, H. pylori will approximately disappear in U.S. at 2037.