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Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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228
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Type:
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Topic Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 1, 2011 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Biopharmaceutical Section
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| Abstract - #301687 |
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Title:
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Evaluating Probability of Study Success Through Bayesian Evidence
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Author(s):
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Haoda Fu*+
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Companies:
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Eli Lilly and Company
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Address:
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Lilly Corporate Center, Indianapolis, IN, 46285, USA
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Keywords:
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Bayesian Method ;
Probability of Study Success ;
BEST ;
Clinical Trial Optimization
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Abstract:
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To optimize drug development, we have to think in three different levels: individual study level, compound level, and portfolio level. No matter in which level, there are many choices we have to consider. The probability of study success is the key to evaluate different choices. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian method to evaluate the probability of study success (PrSS) to evaluate different study choices and thus to facilitate quality decision making. The distinction between traditional power and the PrSS is described, and the applications of PrSS will be shown by examples. The optimization in different levels will be discussed.
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