JSM 2011 Online Program

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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 64
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, July 31, 2011 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #301231
Title: A Curveball Index: Quantification of Breaking Balls for Pitchers
Author(s): Jason Wilson*+
Companies: Biola University
Address: 13800 Biola Ave, La Mirada, CA, 90639,
Keywords: baseball ; curveball ; regression ; pitchf/x ; pitcher
Abstract:

In this talk we propose a linear regression model using four variables to develop a standardized rating system for curveballs. The model fit is excellent (Adj-R-sq=0.97, p=10^-16) and has an intuitive interpretation. If the model were adopted by the baseball community, it could provide a standard metric for rating curveballs in the same way that miles per hour has become the standard metric for rating fastballs. The four independent variables measured were: rise, breaking point, location, and total break. The dependent variable was an overall rating of curveball quality judged by a pitching coach. The data were collected in a professional video production studio using three NAIA pitchers.


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