The Impact of Individual Decisions on the Equity of H1N1 Vaccine Distribution

• Activity Number: 286
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 2, 2011 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Business and Economic Statistics Section
• Author(s): Jessica L. Heier Stamm*+ and Nicoleta Serban and Julie Swann
• Companies: Kansas State University and Georgia Institute of Technology and Georgia Institute of Technology
• Keywords: spatial statistics ; equity ; access ; public health logistics ; decentralized systems

Abstract

We integrate spatial statistics, integer programming, game theory, and geographical information systems to provide insights for improved resource allocation in systems where individual choices impact system outcomes. We apply our models to shipment location and vaccine quantity data from the early stage of 2009-2010 H1N1 vaccination campaign, during which vaccine demand significantly outpaced supply. Using integer programming and game theory, we model individuals' choices among vaccination sites. The model output is a measure of vaccine accessibility at the census tract level in terms of distance traveled and number of people per vaccine (scarcity) at each site. We contrast the results of this model, which incorporates individual choice, with a traditional optimization model that assumes a centralized planner controls all choices to optimize access. We then introduce spatial statistical models to identify systematic correlations between access to vaccination sites and socioeconomic factors across geographic space. The results point to geographic inequity in vaccine accessibility. The differences are more pronounced in the model that explicitly captures individual choice.