Estimation of Spatial Distribution for the Risk of Metabolic Complications

• Activity Number: 674
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Thursday, August 4, 2011 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
• Author(s): Luciana Bertoldi Nucci*+ and Ana Carolina Cintra Nunes Mafra and Ricardo Cordeiro and Lia Thieme Oikawa Zangirolani and Maria Angelica Tavares de Medeiros
• Companies: State University of Campinas and State University of Campinas and State University of Campinas and State University of Campinas and Federal University of São Paulo
• Keywords: Obesity ; Epidemiology ; Spatial Risk ; Multinomial model ; Generalized Additive Model

Abstract

Objective: To apply a spatial multinomial model to identify areas of increased risk for metabolic complications. Methods: Cross-sectional study in Southeast Brazil, 2006-2007. We interviewed 651 individuals with their respective anthropometric measures and geographical coordinates of their house location. They were classified according to a combination of body mass index and abdominal circumference as no risk, increased, high or very high risk of metabolic complications (RMC). Results: Gender, age and schooling were associated with RMC. Crude spatial risk for the three levels of the RMC in relation to absence of risk suggests different patterns in each level. Adjusted spatial risk for the RMC shows smaller significant areas, but the pattern remains similar of the crude risk. Conclusions: The statistical analysis applied, that is spatial point analysis with multinomial approach, improves the understanding of differences in RMC found, as we could identify specific areas to intervene.