Changes in Age-Specific Death Rates from Six Leading Causes of Death in Fifty U.S. States and the District of Columbia, 1970-2004

• Activity Number: 190
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, August 1, 2011 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
• Author(s): Rong Wei*+ and Melonie Heron and Jiraphan Suntornchost and Meena Khare
• Companies: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
• Keywords: US mortality ; death rates ; leading cause of death ; locally weighted regression

Abstract

The National Center for Health Statistics has well-documented US death data collected through the National Vital Statistics System since 1968. Based on the data from 1970 to 2004, this study demonstrates changes in death rates from six leading causes of death: heart disease, cancer, stroke, accidents, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes over 35 years in 50 states and the District of Columbia. Death rates are computed into single years of age, so differences in change over time can be explored across age-, cause of death- and state-specific groups. A locally weighted regression is applied to smooth the rates in two dimensions: age and year of death. Death rates from each leading cause are also compared with ones from all causes combined. This study shows that ranks of leading causes of death vary across ages and time trends of death rates vary across states. Interestingly, while most states follow similar patterns over time, some states have unique trends over time. Studying changes in age-, cause of death- and state-specific death rates dissects the underlying causes of overall mortalities, therefore helps us understand the health variations in US populations.