JSM 2011 Online Program

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 508
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 3, 2011 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #300918
Title: Model Assessment in Multistate Transition Models Through Joint Use of Bayesian Variable Selection and Bayes Factors
Author(s): David Engler*+ and Brian Healy
Companies: Brigham Young University and Harvard Medical School,
Address: Department of Statistics, , ,
Keywords: Bayesian variable selection ; Bayes factor ; Multistate transition models ; Model selection
Abstract:

In multiple sclerosis (MS), the main clinical outcome measure is an ordinal score, the expanded disability severity score (EDSS). One of the main goals of MS research is to accurately model transitions between EDSS states over time. This objective first requires a number of significant modeling decisions, including selection of an appropriate link function and whether or not to collapse EDSS states. Then, under a selected model framework, it is also expected that the probability of transitioning from one state to another will vary across subjects; modeling will depend upon identification of transition-specific covariate effects. Historically, both sets of decisions are often made in an ad hoc manner and are not formally justified. We propose joint use of Bayesian variable selection and Bayes factors in Markov transitional models to allow for both the selection of model framework and the identification of transition-specific covariate effects. Methods are assessed using both simulated data and data collected from the Partners MS Center in Boston, MA.


The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2011 program




2011 JSM Online Program Home

For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473.

If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.