JSM 2011 Online Program

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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 359
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 2, 2011 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Biometrics Section
Abstract - #300849
Title: Predicting Spring Wheat Falling Number in Finland
Author(s): Timo Hurme*+ and Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio and Lauri Jauhiainen
Companies: University of Turku and MTT Agrifood Research Finland and MTT Agrifood Research Finland
Address: Assistentinkatu 7, 4. krs., Turun yliopisto, 20014, Finland
Keywords: falling number ; prediction ; web service
Abstract:

Timing of wheat harvest is crucial, especially in Finnish growing conditions. Early harvest results in high grain moisture content and increases the drying costs. Late harvest causes a risk of collapse in falling number - an important quality property of bread wheat - into level where the yield does not meet the standards introduced for food grain. MTT has introduced a web service for spring wheat falling number prediction. The predictions are updated daily during August and September and therefore the service offers daily fresh information on the development of falling number. The service also has an excellent geographical coverage, because the results are presented on maps covering the entire wheat production area in Finland. The falling number predictions are based on statistical models, which were developed using experimental data from years 1998-2007. The input data used to calculate the predictions from the models is the daily 10 × 10 kilometer temperature, moisture and rain lattice data. In addition to the daily falling number forecast, the web service foretells the sudden crash in falling number by giving predictions for three different upcoming five day weather scenarios.


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