On the Estimation of the Incidence and Prevalence in a Two-Phase Longitudinal Sampling Design

• Activity Number: 67
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Sunday, July 31, 2011 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
• Author(s): Samiran Ghosh*+ and Martha Bruce
• Companies: Weill Cornell Medical College and Weill Cornell Medical College
• Keywords: Incidence ; Longitudinal study ; Prevalence ; Survey Design ; Two-phase design

Abstract

Two-phase sampling design is a common practice in many medical studies with rare disorders. Generally the first-phase classification is fallible but relatively cheap, while the accurate second-phase state of-the-art medical diagnosis is complex and rather expensive to perform. When constructed efficiently it offers great potential for higher true case detection as well as for higher precision. In this talk we consider epidemiological studies with two-phase sampling design. However instead of a single two-phase study we consider a scenario where a series of two-phase studies are done in a longitudinal fashion. Efficient and simultaneous estimation of prevalence as well as incidence are being considered at multiple time points from a sampling design-based approach. Finally efficacy of the developed method is discussed with reference to a study of depression among the elderly population.