JSM 2011 Online Program

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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 529
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 3, 2011 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
Abstract - #300643
Title: Methods for Estimating Selected Life Table Parameters Using the Gompertz Distribution
Author(s): Peter Pflaumer*+
Companies: Technical University of Dortmund
Address: , Dortmund, , Germany
Keywords: Mortality ; Life Table ; Life Expectancy ; Life Span ; Old-Age Dependency Ratio ; Stationary Population
Abstract:

Since the mortality of modern developed populations is largely the mortality of old age, the Gompertz model provides a good approximation of life tables in these populations and can be used to estimate and forecast many parameters of the life table and the corresponding stationary population. Average and median remaining life expectancies are calculated and compared using the current U.S. life table. An analytical expression for the median remaining life expectancy is derived. The maximum life span is regarded as a random variable. The median and the modal value of the resulting density function are considered as realizations for the oldest age. A simple method for approximating the old-age dependency ratio is proposed. A sensitivity analysis is carried out. The influence of increasing life expectancy on the old-age dependency ratio is investigated.


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