Statistics in the Ballroom: Rankings, Voting, Fairness, Prediction, and Quantifying the Palin Effect on 'Dancing with the Stars'

• Activity Number: 329
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 2, 2011 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
• Author(s): Jason A. Gershman*+
• Companies: Nova Southeastern University
• Keywords: Fairness ; Sports ; Voting ; Rankings ; Ballroom ; Dancing

Abstract

The popular ballroom dancing competition television show Dancing With The Stars (DWTS) utilizes a ranking system with some intriguing statistical aspects. Some shortcomings of the ranking method were well publicized following Bristol Palin's unlikely position in the finale of Season 11 of the show. This paper examines the voting strategy which led to this unlikely result. Examining fairness and technique, I will contrast the DWTS ranking system with other ranking and voting systems such as those used to elect presidents, decide which college football teams compete for the national championship, and determining the next American Idol. I also examine optimal voting strategies and game theory within the context of real situations from this ballroom dancing competition. Finally, I also demonstrate how an extremely biased sample can be used to make accurate unbiased inference using freely available polling data from fans utilizing the most popular voting method for electing the celebrity ballroom dancing champion.