JSM 2011 Online Program

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 41
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, July 31, 2011 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and Marketing
Abstract - #300539
Title: Successive Sample Selection and Its Relevance for Management Decisions
Author(s): Stephan Wachtel*+ and Thomas Otter
Companies: Goethe University Frankfurt and Goethe University Frankfurt
Address: Grueneburgplatz 1, Frankfurt am Main, International, 60629, Germany
Keywords: Bayesian estimation ; Targeting ; Cross sectional analysis ; Scoring ; Causal reasoning
Abstract:

Frequently organizations collect data characterized by successive selections of consumers based on a sequence of consumer decision outcomes. Those data are collected because they are expected to help management answer the following questions: a) who are the customers on different stages and how likely are they to progress to the next stage?, b) how to select customers likely to reach later stages of the process when the decision maker cares both about probabilities and the covariate pattern targeted?, and c) what actions are likely to move customers to the next stage of the process? We develop a model for the joint analysis of multiple stages allowing for dependence between successive selections through correlated errors. Our model controls for successive selection across multiple stages and correctly reflects the non-linearity resulting from intermediate selection stages. We compare our model to models popular in practice and show that what seem to be similar models initially translate into radically different answers to questions b) and c) above. We use simulated data as well as a large scale survey investigating brand awareness, consideration, purchase and repeat purchase.


The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2011 program




2011 JSM Online Program Home

For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473.

If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.