JSM 2011 Online Program

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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 382
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 2, 2011 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security
Abstract - #300355
Title: Validating a Model of Afghan Drug Industry: Effects of Corruption on the Effectiveness of Counternarcotic Policies
Author(s): Armando Geller*+ and Maciej M. Latek and Seyed M. Mussavi Rizi
Companies: George Mason University and George Mason University and George Mason University
Address: , , ,
Keywords: Afghanistan ; Multiagent simulation ; Validation

We report the findings of a multiagent model in which we examine the effectiveness of counternarcotic policies that suppress drug production and drug exports. To do so, we first study how opportunities for daily corruption provide incentives or disincentives to farmers and traders to comply with government regulations. We then show how the outcomes of such micro decisions percolate through alternative governance institutions, local strongmen and the Taliban. Finally, we discuss the cognitive and computational foundations of decision making for self-interested economic agents, formal government institutions and informal government structures that enable them to operate plausibly in a conflict environment where corruption is possible. Our approach is focused on implementing bounded rationality while achieving culture and context plausibility and narrative face validity.

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