The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.
Abstract Details
|
Activity Number:
|
382
|
|
Type:
|
Invited
|
|
Date/Time:
|
Tuesday, August 2, 2011 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
|
|
Sponsor:
|
Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security
|
| Abstract - #300355 |
|
Title:
|
Validating a Model of Afghan Drug Industry: Effects of Corruption on the Effectiveness of Counternarcotic Policies
|
|
Author(s):
|
Armando Geller*+ and Maciej M. Latek and Seyed M. Mussavi Rizi
|
|
Companies:
|
George Mason University and George Mason University and George Mason University
|
|
Address:
|
, , ,
|
|
Keywords:
|
Afghanistan ;
Multiagent simulation ;
Validation
|
|
Abstract:
|
We report the findings of a multiagent model in which we examine the effectiveness of counternarcotic policies that suppress drug production and drug exports. To do so, we first study how opportunities for daily corruption provide incentives or disincentives to farmers and traders to comply with government regulations. We then show how the outcomes of such micro decisions percolate through alternative governance institutions, local strongmen and the Taliban. Finally, we discuss the cognitive and computational foundations of decision making for self-interested economic agents, formal government institutions and informal government structures that enable them to operate plausibly in a conflict environment where corruption is possible. Our approach is focused on implementing bounded rationality while achieving culture and context plausibility and narrative face validity.
|
The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
Back to the full JSM 2011 program
|
2011 JSM Online Program Home
For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473.
If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.