Life on the Bubble: Who's in and Who's out?

• Activity Number: 439
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 3, 2011 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
• Author(s): Scotland Charles Leman*+
• Companies: Virginia Tech
• Keywords: March Madness ; Bubble Teams ; RPI ; Strength of Schedule ; Tournament ; Basketball

Abstract

Every year, the top National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) basketball teams square off and compete for the national colligate basketball championship, in what is commonly referred to as "March Madness". However, before teams are eligible to compete, they must obtain entry into the tournament: either by winning their conference tournament, or by selection through a committee decision process. Various factors in?uence the committee's decision. Of primary importance is the perceived strength of a team; however, the possible measures used to assess a team's strength can vary widely. For teams, on the borderline of tournament inclusion, these metrics are of particular interest. Using historical data, we assess which metrics play the most substantial roles in predicting tournament inclusion. Based on these metrics, we determine guidelines for constructing a team's schedule, in oder to enhance the chance of being selected for the tournament. We conclude by discussing alternative metrics, and procedures which may be used to obtain closer agreement between currently contrasting metrics.