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Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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98
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 1, 2011 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Committee on Professional Ethics
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| Abstract - #300182 |
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Title:
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Bush v. Gore in Florida 2000: A Questionable Margin of Victory and a Statistician's Dilemma in Testifying from 11th-Hour Data
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Author(s):
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Arlene Ash*+
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Companies:
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University of Massachusetts
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Address:
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Medical School, Worcester, MA, ,
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Keywords:
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ethics ;
elections ;
testimony ;
consulting
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Abstract:
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Dr. Ash agreed to testify in December 2000 regarding the effect on the US presidential election of about 1200 imperfectly-filled-out and questionably re-enfranchised absentee ballots originally solicited by the Republican Party of Martin County, Florida. The night before she was due to testify, some newly available data called into question the applicability to Martin County of some of the original (statewide polling) data on which she had relied in making preliminary estimates of the effect of what now looked like approximately 900 ballots on the Bush v. Gore margin of victory (then 537). The defect was fairly subtle and it seemed likely that no one else would notice, but could Dr. Ash honorably move forward, and if so how?
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