Hurricanes and Global Warming: Expectations Versus Observations

• Activity Number: 550
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 3, 2011 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis
• Author(s): Christopher William Landsea*+
• Companies: NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center
• Keywords: climate change ; hurricanes

Abstract

Climate variability and any resulting change in the characteristics of hurricanes have become topics of great interest and research within the past few years. Some recent scientific articles have reported large increases in hurricane energy, numbers, and windspeeds in many basins during the last few decades in association with warmer sea surface temperatures. These increases in hurricane activity have been linked to man-made greenhouse gas changes.

It is likely that some increase in hurricane peak windspeed has occurred and will continue to occur if the climate continues to warm. However, whether greenhouse gas warming is related in increases in hurricane activity is NOT the most relevant question. One needs to address instead: What is the SENSITIVITY of hurricane intensity, frequency and overall activity to greenhouse gas forcing? Is it indeed large today, or is it likely to be a small factor even several decades from now? These questions as well as an attempt to reconcile theoretial/numerical modeling studies with some recent observational papers will be addressed in the talk.