This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 588
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 4, 2010 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis
Abstract - #309158
Title: A Continuous Time List Capture Model for Internet Threats
Author(s): Rhiannon Weaver*+
Companies: Carnegie Mellon University
Address: 4500 Fifth Avenue, Pittsburgh , PA, 15213,
Keywords: metrics ; population estimation ; mark-recapture ; Network security ; botnets ; malware
Abstract:

To study rapidly evolving populations of Internet threats under views from multiple watch lists, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian model we call Continuous-Time List Capture (CTLC). Methodologically, CTLC is related to survival analysis under competing risks, in which individuals under study admit as many survival curves as there are sources of watch list data. We suggest a Weibull model for the lifetime of a file from birth to appearance on a watch list, and we propose a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method for simultaneous estimation of birth times for individuals, Weibull rate parameters for lists, and the effects of heterogeneity in behavior or traits among lists and individuals. We describe a population study of unique malware files under the CTLC framework, and present a preliminary simulation study as well as future work.


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