Simulation of Risk of Codling Moth Establishment from Imported Apples

• Activity Number: 78
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Sunday, August 1, 2010 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis
• Author(s): Eleanor Shannon Neeley*+
• Companies: Brigham Young University
• Keywords: Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling ; Simulation ; Risk Analysis

Abstract

We quantitatively estimate the probability that the codling moth (CM), an important apple pest, will establish itself in a foreign country from imported apples. Components of the model include estimates of exposure potential; the proportion of individuals likely to arrive in areas suitable for CM establishment; and the proportion of individuals likely to survive to reproductive adulthood. Data for the model were obtained through literature review of economic, technical, and agricultural reports. A Bayesian Hierarchical model was used to estimate a distribution for exposure potential. We used Monte Carlo simulation by substituting a probability distribution function for other factors that had inherent uncertainty. The results of the model simulation indicate that the probability of CM establishment in the foreign country from apple imports is very close to zero.