This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.
Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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520
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 4, 2010 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
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| Abstract - #309045 |
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Title:
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Hierarchical Bayes Models for Daily Rainfall at Multiple Sites
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Author(s):
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Kenneth Shirley*+
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Companies:
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AT&T Labs
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Address:
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180 Park Ave. Building 103, Florham Park, NJ, 07932, USA
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Keywords:
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hierarchical models ;
MCMC ;
rainfall models ;
time series
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Abstract:
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We develop a model for daily rainfall at a site with a very short record of observations (less than one year) with the goal of estimating the distributions of various statistics aggregated at the seasonal level. The short data record is accompanied by neighboring sites with longer records as well as various other rainfall proxies such as satellite-based rainfall estimates and (potentially unreliable) nearby manual rain stations. We use hierarchical Bayes models because of their flexibility and natural method of partially pooling parameter estimates so as to borrow strength from related sources of data. The model we propose incorporates the effects of covariates and periodic time trends while allowing us to model separate sources of variation, such as spatial variation and measurement error.
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The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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