This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.
Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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32
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Sunday, August 1, 2010 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
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| Abstract - #309043 |
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Title:
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Estimating Epidemic Parameters of STI Transmission: A Bayesian Approach Using MCMC Techniques
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Author(s):
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Jeffrey M. Switchenko*+ and Lance Waller
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Companies:
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Emory University and Emory University
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Address:
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Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA, 30322,
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Keywords:
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MCMC ;
SIR models ;
STI
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Abstract:
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Sexually transmitted infections (STI) remain a significant cause of morbidity in many developing countries and in some areas within North America and Europe. Transmission and spread can be predicted using variations of SIR epidemic models. We will present estimates of the epidemic threshold parameter, or basic reproduction number, R0 - a function of contact rates, probability of transmission given contact, and length of infectious period - through the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. In addition, we will address limitations and concerns arising from this form of Bayesian modeling. The approach is illustrated using disease transmission data from the region around Baltimore City County for the years 1994-1997.
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