This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 530
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 4, 2010 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #308986
Title: Empirical Evaluation of Methods for Predicting Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Canada
Author(s): Michael Otterstatter*+ and Lin Xie
Companies: Public Health Agency of Canada and Public Health Agency of Canada
Address: 785 Carling Avenue, Ottawa, ON, K1A 0K9, Canada
Keywords: cancer ; forecasting ; projection ; multivariate ; time-series ; age-period-cohort

Estimates of the future burden of cancer can assist public health planning and prevention. Various statistical methods are available for predicting cancer rates, but their strengths and weaknesses have not been fully explored. Incidence (1967-2006) and mortality (1961-2005) data from Canadian cancer and vital statistics databases were used to compare univariate age-period-cohort (APC) models, developed for cancer prediction in the Nordic countries, against multivariate time series (MTS) models that predict rates of several cancers or regions simultaneously. APC models are the standard approach and perform well for most common cancers; however, MTS models produce more precise estimates in some cases by borrowing information across strata. Model performance was based on the relative difference between observed and predicted Canadian rates of several cancers, by sex and geographic region.

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