This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 674
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 5, 2010 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #308916
Title: A Simulation Study on the Effects of Increasing the Number of Capture Periods in Closed Population Capture-Recapture Models with Heterogeneity
Author(s): Ross Gosky and Jose Sanqui*+
Companies: Appalachian State University
Address: 226 Walker Hall, Boone, NC, 28608,
Keywords: Bayesian Inference ; Capture-Recapture ; Mark-Recapture ; Population Size Estimation ; Heterogeneity ; WinBUGS
Abstract:

Capture-Recapture models are useful in estimating unknown population sizes N. A common modeling challenge for closed population models involves unequal animal catchability, referred to as animal heterogeneity. Many approaches to modeling heterogeneity for closed populations have been proposed. Link (2004) showed that inference about N may be highly dependent on the assumed distribution of animal capture probabilities in the population, and that different models can fit a data set equally well but provide contradictory inferences about N. Our research uses simulation to determine how prevalent this phenomenon is in small to moderate sized animal populations with relatively low capture probabilities, specifically with regard to increasing the number of capture periods in the study, utilizing three common Bayesian Capture-Recapture heterogeneity models to fit the data.


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