This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 256
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 2, 2010 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Biopharmaceutical Section
Abstract - #308680
Title: Validation of a Monte-Carlo Markov Model for Schizophrenia
Author(s): Alice Dragomir*+ and Jean-Francois Angers and Jean-Eric Tarride and Syvie Perreault
Companies: Université de Montréal and Université de Montréal and McMaster University and Université de Montréal
Address: Faculty of Pharmacy, Montreal, QC, H3C 3J7, CANADA
Keywords: model validation ; Markov model ; schizophrenia

Aim: To evaluate the new drug therapies for schizophrenia, we developed a Markov model using the Monte-Carlo micro-simulation in order to model the natural course of schizophrenia. Objectives: To determinate the validity of the developed Monte-Carlo Markov micro-simulation model. Methods: The model was based on data from the Régie de l'assurance maladie du Québec databases. Internal and external validation was performed. Results: The characteristics of simulated cohort were similar to those of the cohort study. The number of simulated disease states was consistent with the number of different observed disease states. The mean of the model's predicted probabilities of transition found in the simulated cohort were also consistent with those published in the literature. Conclusion: Our results show both internal and external validity of the model.

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