Validation of a Monte-Carlo Markov Model for Schizophrenia

• Activity Number: 256
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, August 2, 2010 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Biopharmaceutical Section
• Author(s): Alice Dragomir*+ and Jean-Francois Angers and Jean-Eric Tarride and Syvie Perreault
• Companies: Université de Montréal and Université de Montréal and McMaster University and Université de Montréal
• Keywords: model validation ; Markov model ; schizophrenia

Abstract

Aim: To evaluate the new drug therapies for schizophrenia, we developed a Markov model using the Monte-Carlo micro-simulation in order to model the natural course of schizophrenia. Objectives: To determinate the validity of the developed Monte-Carlo Markov micro-simulation model. Methods: The model was based on data from the Régie de l'assurance maladie du Québec databases. Internal and external validation was performed. Results: The characteristics of simulated cohort were similar to those of the cohort study. The number of simulated disease states was consistent with the number of different observed disease states. The mean of the model's predicted probabilities of transition found in the simulated cohort were also consistent with those published in the literature. Conclusion: Our results show both internal and external validity of the model.