This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.
Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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464
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Type:
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Topic Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 4, 2010 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Business and Economic Statistics Section
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| Abstract - #308330 |
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Title:
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What Do Macroeconomists Know About Productivity Growth?
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Author(s):
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Simon Van Norden*+ and Jan P.A.M. Jacobs
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Companies:
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HEC Montreal and University of Groningen
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Address:
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Service de l'enseignement de la finance, Montreal, QC, H9S 5V8, Canada
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Keywords:
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productivity ;
real-time analysis ;
data revisions
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Abstract:
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Productivity growth trends are carefully scrutinized by macroeconomists and play a key role in understanding the evolution of international competitiveness, the solvency of public pension systems, private savings behavior and sources of macroeconomic shocks. However, estimates of their trend growth rates suffer from two potential problems: (i) recent estimates of trends are imprecise, and (ii) published data tend to be extensively revised.
This paper documents and compares the statistical (un)reliability of estimates of aggregate trend productivity in several OECD countries. In addition, we address the implications for forecasting trend productivity in real time.
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