This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 679
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 5, 2010 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Quality and Productivity
Abstract - #308064
Title: Field-Failure and Warranty Prediction Based on Auxiliary Use-Rate Information
Author(s): Yili Hong*+ and William Q. Meeker
Companies: Virginia Tech and Iowa State University
Address: 850 Plantation Rd Apt 306, Blacksburg, VA, 24060,
Keywords: Calibration ; Cycles to failure ; Multiple failure modes ; Prediction intervals ; Product reliability ; Risk analysis
Abstract:

Usually the field-data response used to make predictions of future failures is the number of weeks in service. Use-rate information usually is not available. With new technology, however, sensors and smart chips are being installed in many modern products ranging from computers and printers to automobiles and aircraft engines. Thus the coming generations of field data for many products will provide information on how the product has been used and the environment in which it was used. This paper was motivated by the need to predict warranty returns for a product with multiple failure modes. For this product, use-rate information was available for those units that were connected to the network. We show how to use a cycles-to-failure model to compute predictions and prediction intervals for the number of warranty returns. We present prediction methods for units not connected to the network.


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