An Empirical Comparison of Methods for Temporal Distribution and Interpolation

• Activity Number: 334
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 3, 2010 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Business and Economic Statistics Section
• Author(s): Baoline Chen*+
• Companies: Bureau of Economic Analysis
• Keywords: Benchmaking ; Temporal disaggregation ; Official Time Series Data

Abstract

This study evaluates several methods for routine compilation of sub-annual estimates through temporal distribution and interpolation in the national accounts at BEA. The evaluation is conducted using annual series and sub-annual indicators from the National Economic Accounts. Final sub-annual estimates are evaluated according to specific criteria to ensure high quality final estimates in compliance with operational policy at the national accounts. The study covers various cases of temporal disaggregation with regard to the availability of annual and sub-annual information. The results show that modified Denton proportional first difference method outperforms other methods being evaluated, and the Casey-Trager growth preservation model is a close competitor in some cases. Results from ARIMA models show limitations under current revision policies at the national accounts.