This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 679
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 5, 2010 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Quality and Productivity
Abstract - #307803
Title: Reliability Analysis Based on Warranty Data with Sale and Report Lag
Author(s): Shuen-Lin Jeng*+
Companies: National Cheng Kung University
Address: No. 1, University Road, Tainan, 700, Taiwan, ROC
Keywords: defect rate ; maximum likelihood estimates ; mixture model ; prediction ; reliability ; warranty data
Abstract:

Warranty data are the important source to track down the reliability of product in field. In a certain warranty data base with millions of electronic products, only manufacture dates and the field defect dates were recorded. There were no exact dates for the time when the products were sold. Furthermore, the failure dates of products were sent back to the data base after a random period of time. In this paper we build a gamma-lognormal-gamma mixture model for such field defect warranty data by considering the sale, use, and report time distributions together. The goals of the analysis are to predict the defect rate after the products were shipped out of the factory and the reliability after the products had been sold to the customers. The maximum likelihood estimates and the prediction intervals for the product reliability are calculated based on the given mixture model.


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