This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 537
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 4, 2010 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis
Abstract - #307755
Title: Statistical Risk Assessment for Chemical Substances
Author(s): Koji Kanefuji*+ and Takayuki Fujii and Masayuki Kageyama and Masashi Gamo and Hiroe Tsubaki
Companies: The Institute of Statistical Mathematics and The Institute of Statistical Mathematics and The Institute of Statistical Mathematics and National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology and The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
Address: 10-3 Midoricho, Tokyo, 271-0092, Japan
Keywords: chemical substance ; risk trade-off ; risk assessment

When risk due to a chemical substance is reduced by substituting the substance with another one, we need to consider risk trade-off problem. We use huge volumes of past experimental datasets "Chemical Substances Hazard Assessment Report Series" that is one of the domestically shared result of a hazard assessment project named "Chemical Risk Assessment and Development of Risk Assessment Methods" in Japan. We analyze the causal relationships among toxicological effects of chemicals in rat and mouse. We calculate the Lowest Observed Effect Level (LOEL) of each substance for 10 endpoints (liver, kidney, etc.) by oral and inhalation exposure, respectively. The relationships between the each endpoint are verified by using the structural equation modeling(SEM). We construct some causal relation networks by the SEM, while the dataset including missing observations.

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