This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 42
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, August 1, 2010 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #307750
Title: Bayesian Tracking of Emerging Epidemics Using Ensemble Optimal Statistical Interpolation (EnOSI)
Author(s): Ashok Krishnamurthy*+
Companies: University of Colorado, Denver
Address: 1250 14th St., Suite 619, Denver, CO, 80202,
Keywords: Bayesian statistical tracking ; emerging epidemics ; spatial S-I-R epidemic model ; data assimilation ; ensemble Kalman ; optimal statistical interpolation
Abstract:

We explore the use of the optimal statistical interpolation (OSI) data assimilation method for the statistical tracking of emerging epidemics and to study the spatial dynamics of a disease. The epidemic models that we used for this study are spatial variants of the common susceptible-infectious-removed (S-I-R) compartmental model of epidemiology. The spatial S-I-R epidemic model is illustrated by application to simulated spatial dynamic epidemic data from the historic "Black Death" plague of 14th century Europe. Bayesian statistical tracking of emerging epidemic diseases using the OSI as it unfolds is illustrated for a simulated epidemic wave originating in Santa Fe, New Mexico.


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