This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 419
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 3, 2010 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Survey Research Methods
Abstract - #307737
Title: Serial Comparisons in Small Domain Models: A Residual-Based Approach
Author(s): Wesley Basel*+ and Sam Hawala and David Powers
Companies: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau
Address: 4600 Silver Hill Road, Washington, DC, 20233,
Keywords: small area ; small domain ; Census ; SAIPE ; statistical comparisons ; poverty
Abstract:

The U.S. Census Bureau's Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) program produces model-based estimates for small geographic areas using survey data, administrative records, postcensal population estimates and decennial census data. This paper proposes and evaluates a method for making year-to-year statistical comparisons of poverty at the county level. The method uses aggregations of regression residuals in order to estimate the underlying serial correlation in SAIPE county-level estimates. Three residual-based estimators for the model error correlation are considered, with alternative weights used for each. The estimators are evaluated using simulations under the assumed error specification, and the effect of a heteroscedastic departure from these assumptions is evaluated. Finally, empirical results are reported under two alternative error component specifications.


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