This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 530
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 4, 2010 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #307542
Title: Taking Serial Correlation Seriously: An Illustration from an Assessment of Temporal Trend of Racial Disparity in Chlamydia Prevalence Among Black and White Women
Author(s): Lin H. Tian*+ and Catherine L. Satterwhite and Jim R. Braxton and Samuel L. Groseclose
Companies: CDC and CDC and CDC and CDC
Address: 1600 Clifton Rd, Mailstop: E-63, , Atlanta , GA, 30333,
Keywords: Time series data ; serial correlation ; regression with ARMA errors ; temporal trend ; racial disparity

We assessed the temporal trend of absolute disparity in chlamydia prevalence from 2006-2008 between black women and white women using two methods - standard linear regression (ignores serial correlation) and regression with ARMA error model (accounts for serial correlation). Racial disparity significantly decreased (-0.122% per two-month interval; standard error (SE) =0.052, P-value=0.019) using regression with ARMA error analysis, but not in standard regression analysis (-0.107% per two-month interval, SE=0.095, P-value=0.260). This suggests ignoring serial correlation in observed data can introduce substantial bias in regression coefficient standard error estimation and mislead statistical inference. In the example, ignoring correlation would have incorrectly led us to conclude that the female black-white racial disparity did not significantly improve over time.

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