This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 671
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 5, 2010 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #307241
Title: Simulation for Golf Resort Overbooking
Author(s): Melvin Ott*+
Companies: Melvin Ott & Associates
Address: 2613 East Nicklaus Avenue, Spokane, WA, 99223-9520,
Keywords: sports ; simulation ; modeling ; overbooking

The airlines have used overbooking simulation modeling for years. Overbooking is an offset to the no show rate. If 10% of the scheduled foursomes fail to show, then a 10% overbooking would compensate. However, the no show rate is a random event. Hence, the simulation modeling is also a random event designed to replicate what can happen if certain scheduling features are modified. Fore 4.1 compares the average wait per golfer for several scheduling frequency options. If the average wait changes very little from hourly overbooking (or some other choice) compared to no overbooking, and the number of golfers scheduled increases, then the revenue per day is increased. Fore 4.1 will also allow for modeling the impact of not allowing slow golfers in the 6-8AM time slot, not allowing slow golfers in the 6-10AM time slot, or alternatively allowing slow groups at the popular 9AM time slot.

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