This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 257
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 2, 2010 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #307239
Title: Doubly Truncated Negative Binomial Regression for Evaluating the Age Distribution of Pertussis Infant Deaths
Author(s): Andrew Lewis Baughman*+ and Tracy Pondo and Margaret Cortese and Barry Sirotkin and Charles E. Rose, Jr. and Tejpratap Tiwari
Companies: CDC and CDC and CDC and CDC and CDC and CDC
Address: 1043 North Virginia Ave, Atlanta, GA, 30306,
Keywords: Doubly truncated negative binomial ; mixture model ; age distribution ; pertussis ; infant mortality

As part of a study to examine long-term trends in pertussis infant mortality, we evaluated the age distribution of pertussis deaths by month (0-11) using the U.S. vital statistics for 1933-2006. A two-part mixture model was developed that included a point distribution for deaths that occurred in the first month of life, and a doubly truncated negative binomial (DTNB) distribution for deaths that occurred during months 1 to 11. The conditional mean and variance of the DTNB distribution were derived and used to calculate the predicted average age at death as well as estimate the risk ratio for death, by time period, race, ethnicity, and gender. Results from fitting the mixture model indicated that the age distribution of pertussis deaths shifted towards younger infants. The average age of pertussis infant deaths decreased throughout the study period.

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