This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 18
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, August 1, 2010 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Biopharmaceutical Section
Abstract - #307182
Title: Evaluation of Dose-Finding Designs: On the Interplay Between Theory and Simulation
Author(s): Assaf P. Oron*+ and Peter Hoff
Companies: University of Washington and University of Washington
Address: 4225 Roosevelt Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98105,
Keywords: Phase I Cancer Trials ; Up-and-Down ; Continual Reassessment Method ; Dose Finding ; Percentile Finding ; Cumulative Cohort Design

For half a century, simulations have played a key role in dose-finding design development. Recently they have come to completely dominate the field. Most new Phase I cancer trial designs are introduced with no proven theoretical properties. Instead, comparative simulations serve to "prove" that the new method beats the competition.

This talk illustrates the benefits of returning the adaptive dose-finding field to a more theory-supported track. We present new results regarding the asymptotic convergence behavior of some design families. The examination of asymptotic behavior, which has been argued to be irrelevant for experiments that often terminate after a handful of cohorts, can in fact serve a dual purpose: 1. It is a basic sanity check of the design's self-correction mechanism, and 2. It provides insight regarding what might go wrong during the small-sample experiment.

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