This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 482
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 4, 2010 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #306941
Title: On the Distribution of Runs Scored and Batting Strategy in Test Cricket
Author(s): Xin Shi*+
Companies: Manchester Metropolitan University
Address: Manchester Metropolitan University Business School, Manchester, M1 3GH, UK
Keywords: negative binomial distribution ; cricket ; strategy
Abstract:

A zero-inflated negative binomial distribution is fitted to partnership scores in test cricket. The distribution of runs scored in matches, in innings, in the innings of batsmen, and in a single ball are presented in an exploratory manner. For partnership scores, while a parametric model does not provide a wholly convincing fit to observed scores, it allows us to consider run-rate as a covariate in this distribution and hence to use run-rate as a surrogate for batting strategy. Then we model the influence of run-rate on match outcome probabilities given the state of the match at during the third innings. Our notion is that the batting team may select a desired run-rate to maximise its win probability or minimise its loss probability.


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