This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 473
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 4, 2010 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Health Policy Statistics Section
Abstract - #306578
Title: Estimation of Minimum Mortality Rates and Excess Mortality from Regional Data
Author(s): Ronald Gangnon*+
Companies: University of Wisconsin
Address: 603 WARF, Madison, WI, 53726,
Keywords: excess mortality ; Poisson regression ; multilevel models ; ranking ; Bayesian methods
Abstract:

Excess mortality in a population of interest is the number of deaths that should not have occurred or could have been avoided under different conditions. In application, excess mortality is assessed relative to the observed mortality rate in some well-performing subgroup of the population, e.g. the best county in the United States. If the county population is small, the reference mortality rate will be unstable even if data are aggregated over several years. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression model for the simultaneous estimation of target (minimum) mortality rates by age and gender and (expected) excess deaths and excess mortality rates by age, gender and county. We illustrate the approach using data on all-cause mortality in the United States from 1999-2005.


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